Magazine · Tag
#Power Law
- Goals, planning & psychology · · 13 min readWithdrawal Strategies: The 4% Rule with BitcoinThe 4% rule with bitcoin: four withdrawal strategies, tested from the 2017 and 2021 price peaks. How to withdraw without selling too much at the bottom.
- Power Law · · 11 min readAnticipating Bitcoin Bear Markets with the Power LawWhat the Power Law tells you before and during a bear market: how far the top rose above trend, how deep and when it fell. A plan for top band and floor.
- Goals, planning & psychology · · 14 min readHow to Create a Bitcoin Exit PlanBitcoin exit plan in 7 steps: target in euros, core holding, rules tied to Power Law zones, taxes in DE, AT, CH. With a fully calculated example plan.
- Power Law · · 12 min readEvery Bitcoin Bear Market Compared: Depth, Duration and RecoveryEvery bitcoin bear market since 2011 compared: how deep, how long, how fast it recovered and where it sat against the Power Law floor. With real data.
- Buying & saving · · 13 min readBuying Bitcoin in a Bear Market: Strategy, Not Gut FeelingBuy bitcoin in a bear market without guessing the bottom: three rules, tested against every bear market since 2013. With examples in euros and francs.
- Power Law · · 14 min readBitcoin Valuation Zones: From Floor to EuphoriaBitcoin valuation zones explained: where floor, accumulation, fair, hot and euphoria lie today, what followed each zone and how to use them.
- Treasury companies · · 14 min readBitcoin ETF Flows and Holdings: Who Holds How Much Bitcoin?Bitcoin ETF flows made clear: how many bitcoin the US spot ETFs hold, when money came and went, and what the flows mean for you as a holder.
- Goals, planning & psychology · · 12 min readFOMO, Panic and Capitulation: The Typical Bitcoin MistakesBitcoin FOMO, panic selling, capitulation: how the cycle of greed and fear costs money, what real price data shows and how to stop it with rules.
- Goals, planning & psychology · · 12 min readTaking Bitcoin Profits: Partial Sales by Rules, Not EmotionsTake bitcoin profits with a plan: when you sell, how much, what you never sell and what taxes change. With examples in euros and francs.
- Power Law · · 12 min readBitcoin vs. Gold: A Historical Model ComparisonBitcoin vs. gold as a model: how gold rose and fell after 1971, how bitcoin's cycles run and what the gold price target of $1.39 million means.
- Basics · · 11 min readThe Bitcoin Halving Explained SimplyThe bitcoin halving explained simply: what happens every four years, when the next halving comes and what it means for miners, price and your savings plan.
- Goals, planning & psychology · · 13 min readBitcoin-Backed Loans: Borrow Instead of SellingBitcoin-backed loans explained: how loan-to-value and liquidation work, what a loan costs and when borrowing beats selling. With a calculator.
- Power Law · · 14 min readBitcoin Price Models Compared: Power Law, S2F, Rainbow and MoreBitcoin price models compared: Power Law, stock-to-flow, Rainbow Chart, MVRV, Pi Cycle and more. What each measures, what it's worth, what failed.
- Power Law · · 13 min readHow to Read the Bitcoin Log Chart: The Logarithmic Scale ExplainedHow to read the bitcoin log chart: what the logarithmic scale shows, where it misleads and how to read trend, floor and zones. With real data.
- Power Law · · 14 min readBitcoin Price Prediction 2030, 2035, 2040 by the Power LawBitcoin price prediction for 2030, 2035 and 2040 by the Power Law: floor, trend and top band in USD, EUR and CHF, with an example and the model's limits.
- Power Law · · 11 min readThe Bitcoin Rainbow Chart ExplainedBitcoin Rainbow Chart explained: how its colour bands are drawn, where it comes from, why it was redrawn in 2022 and what the Power Law does differently.
- Power Law · · 15 min readThe Bitcoin Top Band: When Partial Sales Make SenseThe Bitcoin top band shows how high cycle highs have reached. Where it is today, when partial sales made sense and why the room is shrinking.
- Power Law · · 13 min readThe Bitcoin Four-Year Cycle: Myth or Pattern?The bitcoin four-year cycle fact-checked: every cycle since 2012 with halving, high and low, why the rhythm held and what it means for 2028 to 2030.
- Basics · · 14 min readBitcoin vs. Gold: Which Store of Value Wins?Bitcoin vs. gold, fact-checked: returns, volatility, scarcity, custody and taxes in DE, AT, CH with real figures in EUR and CHF. Compare them now.
- Buying & saving · · 12 min readFinding the Right Time to Buy Bitcoin: Does It Exist?Is there a right time to buy bitcoin? Every start day since 2011 backtested: when buyers were at a loss and what timing really got them.
- Power Law · · 12 min readWhy the Floor Never Reaches ZeroWhy the Power Law floor rises every day and never falls to zero, what that means for the bitcoin price and what not, and how far below it the price fell.
- Mining & technology · · 14 min readThe Halvings in Review: What Happened After Each One?All four Bitcoin halvings in review: price on the day, after 6, 12 and 18 months, cycle top, crash, effects on miners and what 2028 may bring.
- Goals, planning & psychology · · 11 min readHODL Psychology: How to Handle Bitcoin's VolatilityUnderstanding HODL psychology: why bitcoin crashes hurt so much, how often you see losses and which rules help you ride out volatility calmly.
- Power Law · · 12 min readMetcalfe's Law and Bitcoin: Network Effect and ValuationMetcalfe's law explained simply: why a network grows with the square of its users, what that means for Bitcoin and where the idea reaches its limits.
- Power Law · · 13 min readThe Power Law Floor: How Low Can Bitcoin Go?The Power Law floor explained: where bitcoin's lower bound is today, how deep past bear markets fell and what followed days below the floor. Do the math.
- Power Law · · 16 min readCriticism of the Bitcoin Power Law: The Model's WeaknessesBitcoin Power Law criticism checked against the data: seven weaknesses of the model, what holds up in each, and how to plan with it anyway. Do the maths.
- Power Law · · 12 min readWhat Happens to the Power Law After the Last Halving?The last bitcoin is created around 2140. Why the Power Law needs no halvings, what changes for miners and why a 100-year extrapolation doesn't hold.
- Power Law · · 33 min readBitcoin's Power Law with a Narrowing Range: Floor, Trend, Top Band, Zones and the 2-Year Moving-Average BandResearch paper on Bitcoin's Power Law: a floor on the published formula, a top band that nears it, the trend between the two, zones and the 2-year MA.
- Power Law · · 13 min readSensitivity analysis: how stable are the Power Law parameters?How much do the Bitcoin Power Law's slope and intercept change with the data's end, start date and weighting? Recalculated up to 2026.
- Power Law · · 14 min readPower Law vs. Stock-to-Flow: Which Bitcoin Model Holds Up?Power Law vs. stock-to-flow, data-checked: how both models calculate, what they have predicted since 2019 and which one you can trust today.
- Treasury companies · · 13 min readCountries with Bitcoin Reserves: Who Holds How Much and Why?Countries holding bitcoin: how many coins the US, China, the UK and El Salvador hold, where they came from and what state reserves mean for you.
- Goals, planning & psychology · · 15 min readLiving Off Bitcoin: What It Really TakesLiving off bitcoin: how much BTC you need, why a buffer for two years of bear market works and what taxes and health insurance cost. Run the numbers.
- Goals, planning & psychology · · 10 min readBecoming a Wholecoiner: The Road to One Whole BitcoinBecoming a wholecoiner: how long it takes to save one whole bitcoin, why it gets harder every year and which milestones help. Do the math now.
- Goals, planning & psychology · · 14 min readHow Many Sats Do I Need to Retire? How Much Bitcoin Is EnoughHow much bitcoin is enough to retire: your pension gap, 4% withdrawal and the Power Law floor give your number in sats. With a table in EUR and CHF.
- Goals, planning & psychology · · 13 min readThe Difference Between a Goal and a StrategyGoal or strategy? The goal is the destination, the strategy the route. Two worked examples show how to check both and write them down.
- Goals, planning & psychology · · 13 min readWhy Most Holders Sell Too EarlySelling bitcoin too early: what selling at +50 %, +100 % or +300 % cost in each cycle, why holders do it and how a written plan helps.
- Power Law · · 18 min readThe Bitcoin Power Law Explained: The Model Behind the Long-Term TrendThe Bitcoin Power Law explained simply: how the model calculates trend, floor and zones, where Bitcoin stands today and what it cannot do.
- Goals, planning & psychology · · 16 min readSet and Plan Your Bitcoin GoalSet your bitcoin goal in 5 steps: amount in euros or francs, target date, savings rate, selling rules and your why. With a sample plan. Start planning.