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The Bitcoin Halving Explained Simply

The bitcoin halving explained simply: what happens every four years, when the next halving comes and what it means for miners, price and your savings plan.

By · · 11 min read

What is the bitcoin halving? In the bitcoin halving, the reward miners receive for a new block is cut in half. It happens automatically every 210’000 blocks, roughly every four years. Since April 2024 the reward has been 3.125 bitcoin per block; from the next halving in spring 2028 it will be 1.5625. So fewer and fewer new bitcoin are created.

Every four years you read it in every newspaper: "The halving is coming, is bitcoin set for its next jump?" Then it goes quiet until the next time. What really happens on that day, and what of it affects you if you hold bitcoin for years? This article explains it without jargon and with real figures. If you are just starting out, read the beginner's guide What is bitcoin? first.

What is the bitcoin halving?

New bitcoin are created in only one way: a miner finds a new block and may pay itself a fixed amount of new bitcoin for it. This reward is called the block subsidy. On top come the fees of the payments in the block.

The halving is the moment this subsidy drops to half. It works like this:

  1. Every block has a number, the block height. Roughly every ten minutes a block is added, about 144 a day.
  2. Every 210’000 blocks an epoch ends. At ten minutes per block that is just under four years.
  3. The first block of the new epoch brings only half as many new bitcoin as the last block of the old one. There is no vote and no date in the calendar, only the block number.

Bitcoin started on January 3, 2009 with 50 bitcoin per block. Because each epoch brings only half as many new bitcoin as the previous one, the total never exceeds 21 million. Why it adds up exactly like that is explained in Why there are only 21 million bitcoin.

How bitcoin calculates the halving

Subsidy of a block = 50 BTC ÷ 2^epoch, with epoch = block height ÷ 210’000 (rounded down).

Block 975’637 (Nov 13, 2026): 975’637 ÷ 210’000 = 4.65, so epoch 4. Subsidy = 50 ÷ 2⁴ = 50 ÷ 16 = 3.125 BTC.

Block 1’050’000: 1’050’000 ÷ 210’000 = 5, so epoch 5. Subsidy = 50 ÷ 2⁵ = 1.5625 BTC.

In the Bitcoin Core code this reads nSubsidy = 50 * COIN; nSubsidy >>= halvings;. The program calculates in satoshis (1 BTC = 100’000’000 sats). Shifting one place to the right (>>=) halves the number and cuts off any fractional part. From the 33rd epoch on, the subsidy is 0 sats.

All bitcoin halvings at a glance

HalvingDateBlockBTC per block afterwardsBitcoin in circulation afterwards
StartJan 3, 20090500
1stNov 28, 2012210’0002510.5 million (50%)
2ndJul 9, 2016420’00012.515.75 million (75%)
3rdMay 11, 2020630’0006.2518.375 million (87.5%)
4thApr 20, 2024840’0003.12519.6875 million (93.75%)
5thapprox. March/April 20281’050’0001.562520.34 million (96.9%)
6thapprox. 20321’260’0000.7812520.67 million (98.4%)

The gaps were never exactly four years: 1’319 days from the first to the second halving, 1’402 to the third, 1’440 to the fourth. Because computing power usually grows, blocks came on average a little faster than every ten minutes. The difficulty adjustment still keeps the pace close to plan.

The chart shows how the supply grows more slowly with each halving. Move your mouse or finger over it to see the supply at any point in time:

0M5M10M15M21M201220162020202420282032203620402044today
Bitcoin in circulation: computed from the protocol's rules (50 BTC per block, halved every 210’000 blocks) and the current block height. Future halvings estimated at one block every ten minutes.

When is the next halving?

The fifth bitcoin halving comes with block 1’050’000. On Nov 13, 2026 the blockchain stood at block 975’637. So 74’363 blocks are still missing.

At exactly ten minutes per block, that would be on April 12, 2028. If blocks come as fast as their average since 2009, every 9.6 minutes, it would already be around March 22, 2028. No one knows the exact day in advance, only the block. A few weeks before, mempool.space shows an estimate that gets more precise with every block.

How to estimate the date

Missing blocks = 1’050’000 − 975’637 = 74’363

At 10 minutes: 74’363 ÷ 144 blocks per day = 516 days after Nov 13, 2026 = Apr 12, 2028

At 9.6 minutes: 74’363 × 9.6 ÷ 1’440 minutes per day = 496 days = Mar 22, 2028

What the halving means for miners

For miners, the halving is the hardest day of the epoch. The subsidy currently makes up almost all of their income. When it is halved, their revenue halves overnight, while electricity and machines cost just as much. How mining works in detail is shown in Bitcoin mining explained.

What happens next has repeated after every halving: miners with old machines or expensive electricity switch off. Computing power drops briefly, the difficulty adjusts downward, and the remaining miners earn a little more again. The network keeps running without interruption.

Fees can absorb part of the loss. In halving block 840’000 on Apr 20, 2024, users paid 37.6 BTC in fees in total, twelve times the new subsidy. That was an exception. How fees come about is explained in Understanding transaction fees and the mempool.

Whether your own machine still pays off after the next halving is worked out by the mining calculator with your electricity price. It takes the halving into account automatically:

Calculator Mining calculator
Open in the calculators →

What the halving meant for the bitcoin price

The best-known idea about the halving: less new supply with the same demand drives the price. Let's check. Today around 450 new bitcoin are created per day. Miners sell a large part of them to pay for electricity and machines.

This is how it looked after the previous halvings. All prices are daily closing prices in US dollars:

HalvingPrice at halvingNext highRiseHigh vs. trendLow afterwards
2012$12$1’135 (Dec 4, 2013)×9210.9×−85%
2016$652$19’641 (Dec 16, 2017)×306.3×−84%
2020$8’559$67’525 (Nov 8, 2021)×7.92.8×−77%
2024$64’938$124’673 (Oct 6, 2025)×1.91.5×−53% so far

"High vs. trend" means: the high as a multiple of the Power Law trend on that day. "Low afterwards" is the fall from the high to the lowest daily close after it.

Three things stand out:

  • A high came every time, twelve to eighteen months after the halving. Each time a deep crash followed.
  • The rise got smaller each time: from ×92 to ×1.9. The 2025 high reached just 1.5 times the long-term trend, the "hot" zone, but not the top band.
  • Four cases are not statistics. The date is known years in advance, and markets price in what is known. At the same time, interest rates, money supply and new buyers such as ETFs and treasury companies were at work each time. What of it is a pattern is examined in the bitcoin four-year cycle fact check.

The halving through the lens of the Power Law

The Power Law model needs no halvings at all. It describes the price purely through the time since bitcoin started. The halving cycles show up in it as swings around a trend that get smaller from cycle to cycle. On Nov 13, 2026, the price of $68’235 was at 0.63 times the trend, just above the floor. This is how it looks in the chart:

  • Price
  • Trend
  • Floor
  • Top band
  • Bear-market low
$0.01$0.10$1.00$10$100$1’000$10’000$100’000$1M202720252023202120192017201520132011Top bandTrendFloorBear-market low: $2.11 (18 Nov 2011)Nov 2011$2.11Bear-market low: $176 (14 Jan 2015)Jan 2015$176Bear-market low: $3’212 (15 Dec 2018)Dec 2018$3’212Bear-market low: $15’784 (21 Nov 2022)Nov 2022$15’784today
The daily close on a logarithmic scale with trend (fair value), floor and top band. The top band comes down toward the floor, as the cycle tops did, and since Jan 2022 the trend runs in the middle between the two; the lines never cross. The dots mark the bear-market lows. The model's lines run one year into the future.

The current state with all zones is on the Power Law page, the formulas in the methodology.

What the halving means for you as a saver

If you hold bitcoin for years, the halving affects you mainly in one place: the supply grows more slowly. Today around 164’000 bitcoin are added each year to the 20.11 million, that is 0.82%. From 2028 it will be around 0.4%, from 2032 around 0.2%. Gold grows by around 1.7% a year through new mining; euros and francs have no fixed limit at all. More on this in Inflation and loss of purchasing power.

The halving does not make your bitcoin more or fewer. Your share of all bitcoin is just diluted more slowly.

Timing a purchase around a halving has brought little so far: the high only came more than a year later, and in between there were often months of losses. A fixed savings plan takes this decision off your hands. Work out how a monthly amount would have developed over several halvings:

Calculator Savings plan (DCA)
Open in the calculators →

What happens after the last halving?

Bitcoin has 33 epochs. Around the year 2140 the subsidy falls to zero, after which no new bitcoin are created. Miners then live on fees alone.

This doesn't happen suddenly. As early as the 2030s the subsidy will be so small that fees make up a growing share of income. Whether they will be enough in the long run to keep the network as secure as today is an open question that developers and economists seriously debate. Only one thing is clear: every halving makes this question a little more pressing.

Frequently asked questions

What is the bitcoin halving?

The halving is the automatic halving of the reward for new blocks. It happens every 210’000 blocks, roughly every four years. Since April 2024 miners receive 3.125 new bitcoin per block, from 2028 only 1.5625.

When is the next bitcoin halving?

At block 1’050’000. As of Nov 13, 2026, 74’363 blocks were missing. That gives a date between late March and mid-April 2028, depending on how fast the blocks come.

How often is there a halving?

Every 210’000 blocks. At ten minutes per block that is around four years. So far, 1’319 to 1’440 days have passed between two halvings, because blocks usually came a little faster.

Does the bitcoin price rise after the halving?

After all four previous halvings there was a new high within 12 to 18 months, followed by a deep crash. But the rise shrank from ×92 (2012) to ×1.9 (2024). That is no guarantee for next time.

How many halvings are left?

Four are over; in total there are 33 epochs until the subsidy is zero. Around the year 2140 the last satoshi is created. Mainly the next few halvings will be noticeable; after that the amounts are tiny.

Can the halving be changed or stopped?

Only if practically all nodes voluntarily install new software with different rules. Every node checks the reward in every block and rejects blocks that pay out more. Anyone who holds bitcoin has no reason to inflict that on their own share.

Sources

Not financial, legal or tax advice. Models are no guarantee.

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