Set and Plan Your Bitcoin Goal

Short answer: You set a bitcoin goal in euros or francs, not as a price target: what do you need how much money for, and by when? From that you work out how many bitcoin you need and which savings rate gets you there. Add rules for when you sell and what you never do, and one sentence on why you hold.

Why almost everyone without a goal sells at the wrong time

You bought bitcoin, perhaps with a savings plan. Then the price halves, and you wonder whether to get out. Or it doubles, and you don't know whether you should sell some now. Neither question has a right answer as long as you don't know what you are holding for.

This is exactly where most people fail. Not in choosing a provider, but in deciding by gut feeling at the wrong moment. A fixed goal takes these decisions off your hands, because you made them beforehand in peace.

This is how far bitcoin has fallen so far, measured by daily closing prices in US dollars:

As of Nov 12, 2026. Source: daily prices from /power-law/btc-daily.csv.

If you have no plan in such phases, you often sell near the bottom. If you have one, you read your plan and carry on. Why these phases are so nerve-racking and what helps against it is explained in the article HODL psychology: enduring volatility.

Set your bitcoin goal in five steps

A complete plan answers five questions. The My Goal tool takes you through the same five steps and turns the result into a poster at the end.

1. Inventory: what do you have today, and what can you save each month?
2. Goal: for what, how much and by when?
3. Conversion: how many bitcoin do you need for it, and which savings rate gets you there?
4. Rules: when do you sell how much, what do you keep forever, what do you never do?
5. Why: one sentence you read on a bad day.

Step 1: Take stock

Before you think about goals, sort out your foundation. Three things need to be settled first:

• Emergency fund: three to six months of expenses in your account. Otherwise you'll have to sell bitcoin the first time the washing machine breaks, possibly at the bottom.
• Expensive debt: an overdraft at 10% interest certainly costs more than any investment reliably returns. Pay it off first.
• Your share: how much of your wealth is in bitcoin, and could you withstand an 80% drop on that part? How to work out your maximum share from that is shown in your bitcoin share in the portfolio.

Then write down: your holdings in bitcoin, your monthly savings rate and, if you know it, your average purchase price. Small holdings are easiest to count in sats, that is hundred-millionths of a bitcoin.

Step 2: For what, how much, by when

A good goal has a name, an amount and a date. "Getting rich" is not a goal. "€150’000 for the down payment on a house by 2034" is one.

Typical goals of bitcoin holders:

The shorter the horizon, the more cautiously you need to plan. Five years can fall into a bear market; twenty years have so far evened out every one. The article Withdrawal strategies with bitcoin compares which rule to sell by in retirement.

Think about inflation. €100’000 in nine years is worth less than today. At 2% inflation a year, the ECB's target, €100’000 of today corresponds to about €119’500 in 2036. If your goal is thought of in today's money, scale it up accordingly.

Step 3: From the goal to a bitcoin figure

Now comes the decisive question: how many bitcoin do you need for them to be worth your amount on the target date? That depends on the future price, and nobody knows it.

This site's Power Law model gives you two guide lines for this. The trend is the long-term middle path around which the price has fluctuated since 2010. The floor is the model's lower line, at 42 % of the Power Law line. Bitcoin has been below it on less than 4% of all days so far.

This gives a simple planning rule:

• Calculated with the trend, you learn how many bitcoin you need if things go "normally".
• Calculated with the floor, you learn how many bitcoin you need if the price happens to be very low on the target date.

Your planning zone lies in between. The more important the date is to you, the closer to the floor you plan.

Step 4: The savings rate that gets you there

The savings rate follows from the bitcoin figure. A worked-through plan shows what that looks like in practice.

What does Lea do about the gap that remains in both scenarios? She has three levers, and all three belong in her plan:

1. Flexible date: if the price is low at the start of 2036, she waits. Remaining debt can also run a year or two longer.
2. Partial goal: on the target date she pays off what her holdings allow, and the rest later.
3. Higher instalment: when her salary rises, the instalment rises with it.

What she doesn't do: take out a loan to reach the goal faster. That would turn a crash from a delay into a loss.

There are three things you need to know about figures like these. First, the example calculates cautiously: it assumes that every instalment buys at the trend price. If the price is below it, as it is today, Lea gets more sats for the same money. Second, the prices are nominal; the inflation from step 2 is not included. Third, the Power Law is a model, not a promise. It has described well how bitcoin has grown since 2010, but nothing forces the price to keep following it. How it is calculated is in the methodology.

Try your own figures right here. The calculator shows what a savings plan would have achieved in the past, with your instalment and duration:

For a range instead of two lines, there is the Monte Carlo calculator. It plays through thousands of possible price paths around the trend and shows how likely your goal is to be reached in the model. If your goal is living off your holdings, the retirement with bitcoin calculator calculates withdrawals over the years. How many sats you need for that is shown in the article How much bitcoin for retirement?. What else it takes to live entirely off bitcoin, from the buffer to health insurance, is in Living off bitcoin.

Step 5: Your rules

The savings rate gets you to the goal. The rules make sure you don't gamble it away along the way. Write them down while the price leaves you cold.

Selling rules. Decide at what price you sell which part. For example: "When I reach my goal, I sell as much as the remaining debt." Or using the Power Law zones: "Above the top band, in the euphoria zone, I sell 10%." Such phases have been short so far. How to combine trigger, amount and core holding into one rule is shown in Taking bitcoin profits.

What you keep forever. Many holders set a core holding they never sell, say a quarter. That way you still have bitcoin even when you sell for your goal.

Buying back. If you sell at a high, decide beforehand whether and when you buy back: never, after a fall by half, or at the floor. The calculator Sell the top, buy back at the floor shows how that would have turned out historically.

What you never do. A short list protects you from yourself:

• Never trade with leverage. A loan against bitcoin is leverage too: how big it may be at most is shown in Bitcoin-backed loans: borrow instead of selling.
• Never sell in panic. If the price falls, read your plan first. What panic selling cost in past crashes is shown in FOMO, panic and capitulation.
• Never invest money you will need in the next few years.
• Never leave bitcoin on an exchange you don't need. Why is shown by the exchange collapses from Mt. Gox to FTX.

Your why

The last step sounds soft, but it is the most important. Write down a single sentence about why you hold. "So that my children can decide freely." "So that I only work three days a week at 55."

You read it on the day the price has halved. A concrete reason carries you further than any price forecast. On My Goal you can sign it and print it as a poster together with your holdings, goal and rules.

Three sample goals at a glance

The calculation above works for any goal. Here are three more examples, each with the instalment until the end of 2035 that is enough in the trend scenario and the one for the floor scenario. Also allow for 2% inflation if your amount is thought of in today's money.

For the same amounts in francs, the same instalments apply in francs. Prices and exchange rate as of Nov 12, 2026.

The table also shows when a goal doesn't fit: if even the trend instalment breaks your budget, move the date or reduce the amount. More risk is not a solution.

A goal can also be expressed in bitcoin, such as one whole bitcoin or 0.1 BTC. That is legitimate if you think in bitcoin for the long term. But then also plan what you want to use the holdings for one day, otherwise you lack a selling rule.

Planning together

If you live in a partnership, your bitcoin goal is almost always a shared one. The remaining debt belongs to both of you, and so does retirement. A goal your partner doesn't know about rarely survives the first crash.

How to have that conversation without preaching is in the guide How to talk to your partner and family about bitcoin. There you'll also find the crash test and an emergency plan, so that your family can reach the coins if the worst happens.

Review the plan once a year

A plan is not a contract with the market. It changes when your life changes, not when the price changes. Set yourself a fixed date each year, for example in January, and go through these questions:

1. Do the goal, amount and date still fit your life?
2. Is the savings plan running, and can you raise the instalment?
3. How many bitcoin do you have, and how far along are you in the trend and the floor scenario?
4. Are the selling rules still the ones you want to act by?
5. Are your bitcoin stored safely, and does someone know the emergency plan?

Between those dates you change nothing just because the price has risen or fallen sharply. That is exactly what you made the plan for.

The most common mistakes with a bitcoin goal

• A price target instead of a life goal. "At $200’000 I'll sell everything" says nothing about what for. When the price gets there, you suddenly want $300’000.
• Calculating with the high. If you only reach your goal when bitcoin is in euphoria, you are planning with luck.
• Setting the instalment too high. An instalment you stop in a bear market achieves less than a smaller one that runs for ten years.
• No plan for selling. Many holders reach their goal and still don't sell until the price has halved again.
• Forgetting taxes and inflation. Both can take a noticeable bite out of your target amount.

How to start today

1. Write down your holdings and the savings rate you can manage.
2. Give your goal a name, an amount and a date.
3. Convert it into bitcoin with the trend and the floor and choose an instalment you can keep up for ten years.
4. Set up the savings plan. Which provider suits you is shown in the bitcoin savings plan comparison.
5. Write down your rules and your why, and put the annual review in your calendar.

If you want to go deeper, the Plan and live stage of the academy takes you further. How the model behind the trend and the floor works is explained in the article Bitcoin Power Law.