Bitcoin vs. Gold: Which Store of Value Wins?
Bitcoin vs. gold, fact-checked: returns, volatility, scarcity, custody and taxes in DE, AT, CH with real figures in EUR and CHF. Compare them now.
Bitcoin vs. gold, who wins? Both are scarce and depend on no central bank. Gold has 5’000 years of history and fluctuates less. Bitcoin is scarcer, easier to store and move, and over ten years returned a good thirty times as much, but it fluctuates about 2.6 times as strongly. Over the last five years, gold came out ahead.
Your savings lose purchasing power in your account every year. So you look for something that holds its value over decades. Some swear by gold because it has worked for millennia. Others call bitcoin "digital gold" and consider gold outdated. This article puts the two side by side, with real prices, honest losses and the differences in custody and taxes in Germany, Austria and Switzerland. If you are completely new, read the beginner's guide What is bitcoin? first.
What makes a good store of value
A store of value should keep money saved today worth something in ten or thirty years. Above all, it has to do three things:
- Stay scarce. Nobody may increase the supply at will, or your share gets diluted.
- Be durable and safe to store. It must not spoil, and you must be able to protect it, from thieves as well as from outside seizure.
- Be exchangeable back into money when you need it, at a fair price and without a long wait.
Euros and francs fail on the first point: their supply grows every year, so they buy less and less, as Inflation and loss of purchasing power shows. Gold and bitcoin meet all three, but in very different ways. How all forms of money score on all properties is in the comparison What is good money?
Bitcoin vs. gold: the comparison at a glance
| Gold | Bitcoin | |
|---|---|---|
| History as a store of value | about 5’000 years | since 2009 |
| Supply today | about 224’200 tonnes | about 20.11 million BTC |
| New supply per year | about 3’660 tonnes (1.6%) | about 164’000 BTC (0.82%), half as much from 2028 |
| Upper limit | none, mining rises with the price | 21 million, fixed in the code |
| Total value | about $28 trillion | about $1.44 trillion |
| Volatility per year (last 5 years) | 19% | 51% |
| Largest drop from the high | about −70% (1980–1999) | −93% (2011), −84% (2017–2018) |
| Custody | safe, safe deposit box, insurance | hardware wallet and seed phrase |
| Carrying €100’000 | just under 900 grams of metal | 12 to 24 words in your head or on paper |
| Checking authenticity | testing device or lab | any node, in seconds |
| Ongoing income | none | none |
As of Nov 12, 2026. Prices: gold $3’885 per ounce (COMEX close), bitcoin $71’461 (daily close). Supply: World Gold Council (end of Q3 2026), bitcoin block height per mempool.space. Volatility: standard deviation of daily price changes, annualised.
The table shows the pattern of this whole comparison: on scarcity, custody and transport, bitcoin is ahead. On history and a calm price, gold is ahead.
Scarcity: bitcoin is scarcer, and gold can respond
When the gold price rises, even expensive mines become worthwhile. Production then grows, and more gold comes onto the market. Bitcoin has no such escape valve: more computing power only makes finding new blocks harder; the amount per block stays fixed. How exactly that works is explained in Why there are only 21 million bitcoin.
Today the bitcoin supply already grows only half as fast as the gold supply. With every halving the pace halves again: from 2028 to about 0.4%, from 2032 to about 0.2% a year.
How to calculate supply growth
Growth = new supply per year ÷ existing supply
Gold: 3’661 t ÷ 224’200 t = 1.63% a year
Bitcoin: 3.125 BTC × 144 blocks × 365 days = 164’250 BTC; 164’250 ÷ 20’110’000 = 0.82% a year
The inverse is called stock-to-flow: stock ÷ new supply. Gold about 61, bitcoin about 122. As a price model this ratio is of limited use, as the data check Power Law vs. stock-to-flow shows; bitcoin-powerlaw.com works with the Power Law (see methodology).
Returns: what became of €10’000
No comparison without numbers. The table shows what a lump sum invested on November 12 of each starting year had become by Nov 12, 2026, in euros and francs:
| Period | Gold in EUR | Bitcoin in EUR | Gold in CHF | Bitcoin in CHF |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 year | −4% | −27% | −4% | −27% |
| 3 years | ×1.93 | ×1.85 | ×1.85 | ×1.78 |
| 5 years | ×2.15 | ×1.15 | ×1.88 | ×1.01 |
| 10 years | ×3.0 | ×99.6 | ×2.6 | ×85.6 |
Gold: COMEX closes; bitcoin: daily closes from the bitcoin-powerlaw.com daily data, converted at the respective exchange rate. Excluding fees and storage costs.
The table shows two things. First: over long periods, bitcoin has left gold far behind. Second: in individual years, gold can be clearly ahead. In 2025 gold rose 64% in dollars, while bitcoin fell 6%. With bitcoin, the starting point matters much more than with gold.
A savings plan smooths exactly that. If you invested €100 every month for ten years, €12’000 in total, you had about €25’970 in gold on Nov 12, 2026 and about €100’300 in bitcoin. Over the last five years the two were close: €6’000 became €9’290 in gold and €9’790 in bitcoin.
Work out your own bitcoin savings plan with amount, start year and currency:
Risk: how much bitcoin and gold fluctuate
Bitcoin fluctuates more; that is no secret. Over the last five years its volatility was 51% a year, gold's 19%. A volatility of 51% means a loss of a third within one year is no exception for bitcoin.
The deepest falls from each high:
| Crash | Gold | Bitcoin |
|---|---|---|
| Largest so far | about −70% (1980–1999), new high only in 2008 | −93% (2011) |
| Last major bear market | −44% (August 2011 to December 2015) | −84% (December 2017 to December 2018) |
| Current | −27% (since Jan 29, 2026, high $5’318) | −43% (since Oct 6, 2025, high $124’673), lowest point −53% |
Gold is considered safe, but it hasn't always been. If you bought gold in January 1980, you waited 28 years to be back in the black in nominal terms, and longer after inflation. With bitcoin, recoveries have so far taken two to three years, but the road was far more brutal.
Another way to look at risk: how often would holding for four years have cost you money? We checked every purchase day since 2012. With gold you were in the red after four years in 21% of cases, at worst by −36%. With bitcoin you have never yet been in the red after four years; the worst case (bought on April 8, 2021) was +31%. That is the past, not a promise.
Custody: a safe versus twelve words
This is where bitcoin and gold differ most clearly.
Gold is a physical object. €100’000 in gold weighs just under 900 grams on Nov 12, 2026. At home you need a good safe, and your home contents insurance usually covers only small amounts. A bank safe deposit box costs rent every year and is only accessible during opening hours. When you sell bars without a certificate, the dealer often wants to check that they are genuine. And buying plus selling together often cost several percent for coins and small bars.
Bitcoin is an entry in the blockchain that only your key can move. You back up this key as 12 or 24 words, the seed phrase. A hardware wallet costs a one-off €80 to €200 or so; there are no ongoing storage costs. You can send any amount across any border in minutes. The risk lies elsewhere: if you lose the seed phrase, your bitcoin is gone. If you give it to a scammer, too. How to solve this properly is explained in Storing bitcoin safely.
Taxes on gold and bitcoin in Germany, Austria and Switzerland
For private individuals, the rules for physical gold and bitcoin in Germany and Switzerland are almost the same. In Austria they are not.
| Physical gold | Bitcoin | |
|---|---|---|
| Germany | tax-free after a 1-year holding period (§ 23 EStG) | tax-free after a 1-year holding period (§ 23 EStG) |
| Austria | tax-free after a 1-year holding period | 27.5% on every gain, however long held (bought from Mar 1, 2021) |
| Switzerland | private capital gains tax-free, wealth tax | private capital gains tax-free, wealth tax |
| VAT on purchase | none on investment gold (bars, many coins) | none |
As of Nov 13, 2026. Silver and jewellery are treated differently. Gold ETFs and gold certificates are often taxed like securities.
The details on bitcoin are in Bitcoin taxes in Germany, in Austria and in Switzerland.
Bitcoin as digital gold: how big can bitcoin get?
On Nov 12, 2026, all bitcoin was worth about $1.44 trillion, all the gold in the world about $28 trillion. So bitcoin has a little over 5% of gold's value. If bitcoin were worth as much as gold, one bitcoin would be about $1.39 million, or €1.26 million or CHF 1.16 million.
Nobody knows whether that will ever happen. But you can check when the long-term trend of the Power Law model would reach such values if bitcoin keeps following it:
| Bitcoin would have … of gold's value | Price per bitcoin | Trend reaches it | Floor reaches it |
|---|---|---|---|
| 10% | $139’000 | November 2027 | April 2029 |
| 25% | $348’000 | September 2031 | November 2032 |
| 50% | $696’000 | January 2035 | December 2035 |
| 100% | $1.39 million | September 2038 | June 2039 |
Gold value and bitcoin supply as of Nov 12, 2026, held constant in the calculation. A model, not a forecast.
At $71’461, the price currently stands at 0.66 times the trend, only just above the floor of $67’057. Even the trend itself, at $108’723, is still below the 10% mark.
How to calculate price and date
Gold value: 224’200 t × 32’150.75 ounces per tonne × $3’885.30 = $28.0 trillion
Price at parity: $28.0 trillion ÷ 20’110’000 BTC = $1’392’641
Power Law line on day t (days since Jan 3, 2009): line = 10^−16.493 × t^5.688. Floor = 0.42 × line.
Top band = floor × e^(3.56 ÷ (1 + (t ÷ 4692)³))
Trend = the lower of the Power Law and √(floor × top band)
The trend reaches $1’392’641 after 10’860 days, i.e. on Sep 28, 2038. The floor reaches the same price when the line reaches 1’392’641 ÷ 0.42 = $3.32 million: t = ($3.32 million ÷ 10^−16.493)^(1 ÷ 5.688) = 11’117 days, i.e. on Jun 12, 2039.
Today's figures with all zones are live on the Power Law page.
Which store of value wins?
It depends on what you want to win.
Gold suits you better if you value calm in your portfolio above all, if millennia of history give you more confidence than 17 years, and if physical possession reassures you. You pay for it with storage costs, heavy transport and a supply that keeps growing.
Bitcoin suits you better if you hold for many years, can live with strong swings and want a supply that nobody can increase. You pay for it with crashes of more than 70% and the responsibility for your own key.
Many holders own both. Some gold for calm, some bitcoin for scarcity and growth. Which share suits your life is a personal decision. The questions for it are in Setting and planning your bitcoin goal, and with the lump sum or savings plan calculation you see how your entry point changes the path.
Frequently asked questions
Is bitcoin better than gold?
On scarcity, transport, verifiability and custody, yes: its supply grows more slowly and stops at 21 million. On stability and history, gold is ahead. Over ten years bitcoin returned ×99.6 in euros, gold ×3.0. Over the last five years gold was ahead (as of Nov 12, 2026).
Why is bitcoin called "digital gold"?
Because bitcoin shares gold's most important properties: it is scarce, issued by no state, and new units only come into being with effort, through mining. Unlike gold it is digital, so it is divisible down to the satoshi and can be moved across any border in minutes.
How much gold is one bitcoin worth?
On Nov 12, 2026, one bitcoin was equal to 18.4 fine ounces or about 572 grams of gold. Ten years earlier it was 0.56 ounces; in the record year 2021, at times more than 34 ounces. So the ratio fluctuates strongly.
Which is safer, bitcoin or gold?
In terms of price, gold: over the last five years it fluctuated only a little over a third as much. In terms of custody and outside access, bitcoin, provided you hold it yourself. Gold can be stolen or confiscated; bitcoin only with your seed phrase.
Can bitcoin replace gold?
As a store of value bitcoin is growing, but it has only a little over 5% of gold's value. Gold has roles bitcoin doesn't: as jewellery, in industry and in central bank vaults. Whether bitcoin moves in there is examined in Bitcoin as a reserve currency.
Should I sell gold to buy bitcoin?
That depends on your goal, your time horizon and your nerves, not on a rule. Work out taxes and fees beforehand: in Germany and Austria, selling gold is tax-free after one year, but not before.
Sources
- World Gold Council: How much gold has been mined? (above-ground stocks at end of Q3 2026) and Gold Demand Trends Full Year 2024 (mine production)
- LBMA: LBMA Gold Price (January 1980 high and 1999 low)
- Gold price: COMEX futures, daily closes via Yahoo Finance through Nov 12, 2026
- Bitcoin price: bitcoin-powerlaw.com daily data (Coin Metrics until 2017, OKX after that), as of Nov 12, 2026
- Exchange rates: ECB reference rates (Nov 12, 2026: $1 = €0.90245 = CHF 0.83314), historical via Yahoo Finance
- mempool.space: block height for the bitcoin supply
- Satoshi Nakamoto: Bitcoin: A Peer-to-Peer Electronic Cash System, 2008
- Germany: § 23 EStG (private sales transactions) and § 10 para. 6a Money Laundering Act (cash limit for precious metals)
- Austria: BMF: Steuerliche Behandlung von Kryptowährungen (tax treatment of cryptocurrencies)
- CJEU: judgment C-264/14 Hedqvist of Oct 22, 2015 (no VAT on exchanging bitcoin)
- US Executive Order 6102 of April 5, 1933 (overview on Wikipedia)
- bitcoin-powerlaw.com methodology: derivation of trend, floor and zones
Not financial, legal or tax advice. Models are no guarantee.
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