Thirteen Bitcoin calculators

Bitcoin Power Law · Calculators Your inputs Result Assumptions No financial advice. Models are no guarantee. Copy link Link copied ✓ Preparing … Your browser could not create the file. bitcoin-powerlaw-calculator Today's prices are not loaded yet. Please reload the page in a minute. Please check your inputs. at {price} already today not within {n} years in {n} years years Empty = today's price ({price}) Empty = {inst}'s current rate ({rate}) There is no current rate for this instrument yet – please enter one. Power Law: floor = {floor} × 10^{a} × days since 3 January 2009^{b} US dollars, the published formula, checked against every daily close since 2010; top band = floor × e^({height} ÷ (1 + (days ÷ {turn})³)), fitted through the cycle tops; trend (fair value) = the lower of floor ÷ {floor} and √(floor × top band). The model calculates in US dollars; converted to {cur} at today's rate (1 {cur} = {fx} USD). The model's prices are not adjusted for inflation. Today's Bitcoin price: {price} ({date}, OKX). Taxes are not considered. Floor zone Accumulation Fair Hot Euphoria Monthly savings Period Bitcoin you hold today Floor growth per day per week per month per year Fee per purchase Price path Expenses per month (today) Inflation per year Safe withdrawal rate per year Share of the stack you withdraw each year; 4 % is the classic rule. Monthly savings until then Optional. Bought at fair value. Withdrawal per month (today) Spread around the trend (σ) Standard deviation of ln(price ÷ trend). Measured since 2010: {sigma}. Half-life of a deviation Months until half of a deviation from the trend is gone. Number of runs What for Price today Sell at most Price increase per year Bitcoin as collateral Loan amount Interest per year Liquidation at LTV Loan-to-value at which the lender sells your collateral. Term Interest Amount Spread over months Bitcoin you sell Sell price Invest in Rate per year Tax on the dividend Share you sell Sell price Empty = today's top band. Buy-back price Empty = the floor in a year. Fee per sale and purchase Tax on the proceeds Unit Bitcoin price At fair value (Power Law trend) Today's price, rising with the trend At the floor (worst case) Stays at today's price House or flat Car Travel Something else are added to the loan I pay monthly Savings plan (DCA) How much Bitcoin a monthly savings plan buys and what it may be worth – depending on the price path. Your stack after {n} years of which bought: {btc} Invested Value at the end Value at the floor at the end Average buy price Value Value at the floor Invested One purchase a month, the first today, at the price of the chosen path; the fee ({fee}) comes off each purchase. Price path: Bitcoin costs exactly the model's fair value each month. Price path: today's price rising with the trend – today's ratio to fair value stays. Price path: Bitcoin costs only the floor each month – the model's worst case. Price path: Bitcoin stays at today's price. Floor calculator How much the floor adds to your stack per day, week, month or year, and what your stack is worth in X years if Bitcoin only stands at the floor then. Your stack at the floor in {year} Floor then: {price} Floor today Your stack today At fair value in {year} Floor growth per year Your stack’s floor rises {per} In {year}, {per} 1 BTC: {n} What the floor adds to your stack {per} What the floor adds over a period is the floor at its end minus the floor at its start. Today it rises by about {pct} a day: the Power Law’s exponent {b} divided by the {days} days since 3 January 2009. That share shrinks slowly as the days add up, while the amount keeps growing with the floor. At fair value At the floor Value today The floor ran through the bear-market lows of 2015, 2018 and 2022; the model assumes it keeps rising along the Power Law. The price can also fall below it. Your stack stays the same: nothing bought, nothing sold. Retire with Bitcoin From when the floor alone covers your expenses – with a safe withdrawal rate. The floor covers your expenses from You would need today Withdrawal per year at today's floor Expenses per year today At fair value already from Expenses per year Withdrawal at the floor Withdrawal at fair value Each year you withdraw {swr} of your stack's value. The test is whether that withdrawal at the floor price covers your expenses. Your expenses rise with inflation of {inf} a year. Until then you buy Bitcoin for {m} each month at fair value. Monte Carlo simulator Thousands of possible price paths around the Power Law – and whether your stack carries your monthly withdrawals. Chance your stack lasts {n} years Bitcoin left (median) Value left (median) In a bad case (1 in 10) If it does not last, typically empty from Price, 10–90 % of runs Median Fair value Floor Bitcoin left, 10–90 % of runs Bitcoin left, median {runs} simulated price paths, month by month. Each starts at today's price and strays from the trend like Bitcoin since 2010: spread σ = {sigma} in ln(price ÷ trend), half of a deviation is gone after {hl} months (measured on the daily closes: σ = {fsigma}, {fhl} months). Each month you sell Bitcoin for {w}, rising with inflation of {inf} a year. The same inputs always give the same runs, so a shared link shows the same result. Upgrade calculator House, car, travel: from when you can afford it without selling more than X % of your stack. Share of your stack today Bitcoin price at which it costs {x} Fair value reaches it Even the floor reaches it that is {btc} Share needed at fair value Share needed at the floor Your limit The price of the {what} rises by {inf} a year. Share = price ÷ (your stack × Bitcoin price). Taxes and fees on the sale are not considered. Borrow instead of sell A loan with Bitcoin as collateral: loan-to-value, liquidation price and how far it stays from the floor. Loan-to-value (LTV) today Liquidation price today Liquidation price after {n} years Floor above the liquidation price (at its closest) The floor stays above it for the whole term. In {n} of {m} months the liquidation price is above the floor – a fall to the floor would liquidate you. Interest over {n} years Selling instead costs today Liquidation price Floor Fair value Price today The lender sells your collateral when the loan reaches {liq} of its value: liquidation price = debt ÷ ({liq} × Bitcoin as collateral). Interest is added to the loan: the debt grows by {i} a year (compounded monthly). You pay the interest ({m} a month) from other income; the debt stays the same. Lenders' terms (margin calls before liquidation, fees, custody) differ; the risk that the lender fails is not included. Lump sum vs. DCA All at once or spread over months? How often a lump sum ends with more Bitcoin – depending on the zone the price is in today. Chance a lump sum today ends with more Bitcoin Zone today A lump sum today buys Spread over {n} months buys (median) Lump sum's advantage (median) Chance the lump sum wins, by starting zone 50 % Lump sum: everything at today's price. DCA: {n} equal monthly purchases, the first today. Compared is who ends with more Bitcoin. Per zone, 1’000 simulated price paths start at a typical price of that zone ({ratios} fair value) and stray from the trend like Bitcoin since 2010 (σ = {sigma}, half-life {hl} months). The highlighted zone is today's. Digital-credit cash flow Sell X Bitcoin at price Y, put the proceeds into a Bitcoin-backed preferred share such as STRC, STRK, STRD, STRE, SATA or Metaplanet's: this is the dividend per month and year. Dividend per month Dividend per year Proceeds of the sale Dividends over {n} years Kept, {btc} would be worth in {year} (fair value) Proceeds + dividends Bitcoin kept, at fair value Bitcoin kept, at the floor {inst}'s rate: its current dividend rate ({div}) on the stated value ÷ its price = {rate} (as of {date}, price from Yahoo Finance), as on the Digital Credit page. {inst} is not listed: its rate is the dividend rate on the stated value ({rate}, as of {date}). Rate as entered: {rate} a year. The preferred share keeps its price and its rate; dividends are not reinvested. Paid in {currency}, converted at today's rate. {inst} pays {freq}; per month is a twelfth of the year. Per month is a twelfth of the year. The US tax treatment (e.g. return of capital) does not automatically apply in Germany, Austria or Switzerland. Sell the top, buy back at the floor Sell part at the high and buy back lower: how much Bitcoin you have afterwards – and from which buy-back price it does not pay. Bitcoin afterwards You sell Proceeds after fee and tax Buying back gets you Only pays when buying back below If the price never comes back {btc} and {cash} Bitcoin afterwards, by buy-back price Bitcoin today Your buy-back price Sell price {price}; without an input today's top band, the model's curve through the cycle tops. Buy-back price {price}; without an input the floor in a year. Selling and buying back each cost the fee; the tax is a share of the proceeds. The risk: the price may never fall to your buy-back price. Sats converter Euros, francs or dollars in sats and Bitcoin – and back. Plus: how many sats the same amount bought before and buys in future according to the model. In sats In Bitcoin In {cur} 1 {cur} buys What the amount bought (1 January) At fair value (model) 1 Bitcoin = 100’000’000 sats. History: the first daily close of each year in US dollars (Coin Metrics, OKX), converted at today's exchange rate. Future: the model's fair value on 1 January each year. Forecast: what if … What happens to the price if only a little bitcoin is left on exchanges – or a state or the pension funds start buying? A thought experiment with your own assumptions and an open formula. Bitcoin on exchanges today About 2 million, the figure going round on X; on-chain trackers count somewhat more. Of it left on exchanges Empty: as many as today. Try 500’000, 100’000 or 0. Who buys They buy Spread over Price reaction k 1: half as much on offer, twice the price. 0.5: ×1.4. 2: ×4. Nobody else USA Germany Austria Switzerland Poland Philippines Pension funds worldwide All of them together Empty: {rule} nobody buys. Type an amount and someone does. {n}, as the BITCOIN Act proposes for the USA. {n}, as much per inhabitant ({pop} million) as the USA's million. {n}: 1 % of the world's pension assets (about 58 trillion dollars) at today's price. {n}: every state in the list and the pension funds together. {n} are bought, your amount. Price in {year} with your scenario × {m} the price without it Left on exchanges then Price in {year} without it Bought {p} of all 21 million What the buyers pay With your scenario Without it Formula: price = price without the scenario × (on exchanges today ÷ left on exchanges)^k. With k = {k} that is ×{m} by {year}. Buyers take what they buy off the exchanges, evenly over {y} years. Without the buyers, the exchanges' supply goes from {ex} to {left} in the same time. The buyers want {buy}, but only {have} are on exchanges. They would have to buy the rest from holders – at whatever price those name. No exchange price can be calculated for that. Buying done A game with your assumptions, not a forecast: in reality holders sell into rising prices, miners add new coins and buyers also buy outside exchanges. Nothing left on exchanges: then there is no exchange price any more. Whoever still wants bitcoin has to talk a holder into selling – at whatever price they name. Mining calculator What a miner earns at your electricity price: bitcoin per month, profit, when the hardware has paid for itself – and whether simply buying would have got you more bitcoin. Pool fee Hardware cost Network hashrate growth per year Last 30 days: {pct} Profit per month, today {rev} mined − {cost} power Bitcoin per month, today {sats} a day Pays off up to a power price of {price} per kWh Mined in {n} years worth {value} when mined Result after {n} years Hardware paid off in {month} Hardware not paid off Buying instead {money} for hardware and power, at today's price Mined, at the month's price Hardware and power Halving Network: {hash} EH/s today, growing {g} a year. Your share of the blocks is your hashrate divided by the network's. Per block: {sub} new bitcoin + {fees} in fees (average of the last day). The new bitcoin halve at the next halving, expected in {month}. The pool keeps {fee} and pays out evenly. The miner runs around the clock, also in months whose power costs more than it earns. Not included: cooling, repairs, the hardware's resale value and taxes. Solo mining: the mining lottery Mine on your own and every block is a lottery ticket: whoever finds it keeps the whole reward. How likely is that with your miner, what does a win pay and what does the electricity cost? Chance of finding a block within a year Chance per day On average one block every A block pays you Electricity per year In a pool instead, per year 1 in {n} {n} days {n} years {v} after electricity Chance of at least one block so far The network's hashrate is not loaded yet. Please reload the page in a few minutes. The network's hashrate today: {net} (mempool.space's estimate); your miner has {share} of it. It is held constant; in practice it usually grows, which lowers your chance. A block pays {btc}: new bitcoin plus {fees} in fees, the average of the last {n} blocks. Each halving cuts the new bitcoin in half. Every attempt has the same chance, however long you have mined: the average is no promise. The block can come tomorrow or never. A pool shares its blocks by hashrate: a small, steady income instead of the lottery, before the pool's fee. Your miner's hashrate A Bitaxe has about 1.2 TH/s, an Antminer S21 about 200 TH/s. The whole network: {net}. Its power draw Electricity price per kWh