Magazine · Topic
Power Law
The Power Law model: trend, floor, zones and what they say about today's price.
- · 11 min readAnticipating Bitcoin Bear Markets with the Power LawWhat the Power Law tells you before and during a bear market: how far the top rose above trend, how deep and when it fell. A plan for top band and floor.
- · 12 min readEvery Bitcoin Bear Market Compared: Depth, Duration and RecoveryEvery bitcoin bear market since 2011 compared: how deep, how long, how fast it recovered and where it sat against the Power Law floor. With real data.
- · 14 min readBitcoin Valuation Zones: From Floor to EuphoriaBitcoin valuation zones explained: where floor, accumulation, fair, hot and euphoria lie today, what followed each zone and how to use them.
- · 12 min readBitcoin vs. Gold: A Historical Model ComparisonBitcoin vs. gold as a model: how gold rose and fell after 1971, how bitcoin's cycles run and what the gold price target of $1.39 million means.
- · 14 min readBitcoin Price Models Compared: Power Law, S2F, Rainbow and MoreBitcoin price models compared: Power Law, stock-to-flow, Rainbow Chart, MVRV, Pi Cycle and more. What each measures, what it's worth, what failed.
- · 13 min readHow to Read the Bitcoin Log Chart: The Logarithmic Scale ExplainedHow to read the bitcoin log chart: what the logarithmic scale shows, where it misleads and how to read trend, floor and zones. With real data.
- · 14 min readBitcoin Price Prediction 2030, 2035, 2040 by the Power LawBitcoin price prediction for 2030, 2035 and 2040 by the Power Law: floor, trend and top band in USD, EUR and CHF, with an example and the model's limits.
- · 11 min readThe Bitcoin Rainbow Chart ExplainedBitcoin Rainbow Chart explained: how its colour bands are drawn, where it comes from, why it was redrawn in 2022 and what the Power Law does differently.
- · 15 min readThe Bitcoin Top Band: When Partial Sales Make SenseThe Bitcoin top band shows how high cycle highs have reached. Where it is today, when partial sales made sense and why the room is shrinking.
- · 13 min readThe Bitcoin Four-Year Cycle: Myth or Pattern?The bitcoin four-year cycle fact-checked: every cycle since 2012 with halving, high and low, why the rhythm held and what it means for 2028 to 2030.
- · 12 min readWhy the Floor Never Reaches ZeroWhy the Power Law floor rises every day and never falls to zero, what that means for the bitcoin price and what not, and how far below it the price fell.
- · 12 min readMetcalfe's Law and Bitcoin: Network Effect and ValuationMetcalfe's law explained simply: why a network grows with the square of its users, what that means for Bitcoin and where the idea reaches its limits.
- · 13 min readThe Power Law Floor: How Low Can Bitcoin Go?The Power Law floor explained: where bitcoin's lower bound is today, how deep past bear markets fell and what followed days below the floor. Do the math.
- · 16 min readCriticism of the Bitcoin Power Law: The Model's WeaknessesBitcoin Power Law criticism checked against the data: seven weaknesses of the model, what holds up in each, and how to plan with it anyway. Do the maths.
- · 12 min readWhat Happens to the Power Law After the Last Halving?The last bitcoin is created around 2140. Why the Power Law needs no halvings, what changes for miners and why a 100-year extrapolation doesn't hold.
- · 33 min readBitcoin's Power Law with a Narrowing Range: Floor, Trend, Top Band, Zones and the 2-Year Moving-Average BandResearch paper on Bitcoin's Power Law: a floor on the published formula, a top band that nears it, the trend between the two, zones and the 2-year MA.
- · 13 min readSensitivity analysis: how stable are the Power Law parameters?How much do the Bitcoin Power Law's slope and intercept change with the data's end, start date and weighting? Recalculated up to 2026.
- · 14 min readPower Law vs. Stock-to-Flow: Which Bitcoin Model Holds Up?Power Law vs. stock-to-flow, data-checked: how both models calculate, what they have predicted since 2019 and which one you can trust today.
- · 13 min readStock-to-Flow: Strengths and Limits of the ModelStock-to-flow explained: how the model turns stock and new issuance into a bitcoin price, what it got right in 2021 and why it has been far off since.
- · 18 min readThe Bitcoin Power Law Explained: The Model Behind the Long-Term TrendThe Bitcoin Power Law explained simply: how the model calculates trend, floor and zones, where Bitcoin stands today and what it cannot do.